Adobe: Covid Fueled Online Shopping. Now 2022 Looks Like Another Banner Year.

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Now we know: Americans are hooked on buying a lot of stuff online. A new study says U.S. consumers will spend a record $1 trillion in online shopping in 2022. The study, part of the

Adobe

Digital Economy Index series, noted that consumers shelled out $1.7 trillion online since the pandemic began, from March 2020 through February 2022, almost triple combined 2018 and 2019 online sales of $609 billion.

Adobe estimated 2021 U.S. online sales at $885 billion, up 9% from $813 billion in 2020, which in turn soared 41% from $575 billion in 2019. Adobe also found that prices rose for 21 consecutive months—as inflation grew more severe. In 2020, Adobe says, incremental online spending over 2019 totaled $237.9 billion, including $4.7 billion due to higher prices. More startling was that of the $72.2 billion of incremental spending in 2021, $22.2 billion reflected higher prices. Adobe sees that continuing in 2022, with higher prices projected to add $27 billion to online growth.

Another key finding: The pandemic spurred a “breakout” for online grocery sales. In 2020, Adobe says, online grocery shopping grew 103%, to $73.7 billion. Growth has since moderated, though the total reached $79.7 billion last year, and could top $85 billion this year.

Electronics remains the largest online category, at $165 billion in 2021, up 8% from 2020, and 18.6% of overall e-commerce last year, down from 18.8% in 2020 and 21% in 2019, largely a reflection of growth in other categories. A big shopper complaint: sold-out items. During the pandemic, out-of-stock messages increased by 235%, notes Adobe.

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Next Week

Monday 3/21

Nike

reports third-quarter fiscal-2022 results.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for February. Economists forecast a 0.55 reading, slightly lower than the January data. The index has had four consecutive positive monthly readings, which is associated with the economy growing faster than historical trends.

Tuesday 3/22

Adobe announces first-quarter fiscal-2022 earnings.

NetApp

and

Nvidia

hold their 2022 investor days.

Wednesday 3/23

Cintas and General Mills report quarterly results.

Occidental Petroleum

holds an investor meeting to discuss its low-carbon strategy. Shares of the upstream oil-and-gas company are up 94% this year, making it the best performer in the S&P 500 index.

The Census Bureau reports new-home sales data for February. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 810,000 new single-family houses sold, roughly even with the January figure. The average selling price for a new home was a record $496,900 in January, while the median price was $422,300.

Thursday 3/24

Pesident Biden meets with NATO and EU leaders to discuss Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The two-day summit will be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Darden Restaurants
,
FactSet Research Systems, and NIO hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.

Moderna

hosts its third annual Vaccines Day virtually. The mRNA-therapeutics pioneer will discuss the progress of its vaccines pipeline.

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for February. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to decline 0.5% month over month to $277 billion. Excluding transportation, orders for durable goods are seen rising 0.5%, after increasing 0.7% in January.

The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 19. Claims have averaged 223,000 for the past four weeks and have normalized to roughly prepandemic levels. Continuing claims—the number of people receiving benefits under regular state unemployment-insurance programs—totaled 1.42 million as of March 5. That is the lowest figure in more than five decades, underscoring the tight labor market as job openings continue to outpace job seekers.

Friday 3/25

The National Association of Realtors reports its Pending Home Sales Index for February. Economists forecast a 1% increase in pending home sales, after a 5.7% drop in January.

Write to Eric J. Savitz at [email protected]